North Carolina and South Carolina Could See Widespread Accumulating Snow Sunday as New High-Resolution Model Signals Higher Impacts
North Carolina / South Carolina — A newly released high-resolution NAM forecast model is raising eyebrows among meteorologists after indicating the potential for widespread accumulating snow on Sunday across parts of North Carolina and South Carolina, with impacts that could be more significant than earlier guidance suggested.
However, forecasters stress that this signal is not yet locked in, as three additional models are still processing and will be critical in determining whether this higher-impact scenario gains broader support.
What the New High-Resolution Model Is Showing
The updated model points toward a colder, more moisture-rich setup capable of producing accumulating snow across a wide area, rather than isolated or low-impact snowfall. If this solution verifies, it would represent a notable escalation from earlier projections that favored lighter, more scattered snow potential.
Key signals from the model include:
- Widespread snow coverage rather than narrow bands
- Accumulating snowfall, not just flurries or trace amounts
- Potential for real impacts, including travel disruptions
At this stage, the model output should be viewed as a signal, not a forecast.
Why Forecasters Are Urging Caution
Despite the eye-catching output, meteorologists emphasize that one model alone cannot define the forecast, especially in the Southeast where small changes in temperature and timing can dramatically alter outcomes.
Three other models remain pending, and their agreement — or disagreement — will determine whether confidence increases or this scenario is scaled back.
Important uncertainties still include:
- Exact storm track
- Cold air depth and persistence
- Timing of moisture arrival relative to peak cold
Until those questions are resolved, confidence in a high-impact outcome remains moderate at best.
How This Fits With Earlier Probability Data
Earlier ensemble guidance favored light snow or glancing accumulations, particularly near and north of the Charlotte metro area, with probabilities dropping sharply for higher totals.
This new high-resolution run suggests a possible shift toward a more impactful solution, but forecasters caution that probability still matters. High-impact outcomes remain lower probability, even if they are now more plausible than before.
What Residents Should Do Right Now
For now, residents across North Carolina and South Carolina should treat this as a monitoring situation, not an immediate call to action.
Recommended steps include:
- Stay alert for updated forecasts over the next 24–48 hours
- Avoid reacting to a single model run
- Prepare for the possibility of travel disruptions Sunday, especially if confidence increases
Clearer answers are expected once all major models complete their runs and higher-resolution data becomes available.
Bottom Line
This new model introduces the strongest signal yet for a more impactful snow event Sunday in the Carolinas, but uncertainty remains high. Whether this becomes a significant winter storm or another near-miss will depend on how upcoming guidance trends.
NapervilleLocal.com will continue tracking the data as it updates and will provide clear, no-hype explanations as confidence increases.
I’ve lived in Naperville long enough to see how quickly our community changes — from new developments downtown to sudden shifts in our Midwest weather. Reporting on Naperville news and daily forecasts gives me the chance to keep neighbors informed about what really matters. My goal is simple: deliver clear, timely updates so you always know what’s happening in our city and what to expect from the skies above.