Major Arctic Blast Forecast Around Thanksgiving to Impact Illinois, Texas, and Much of the Central U.S.

UNITED STATES — Weather models are signaling a major Arctic blast expected to arrive around Thanksgiving week, bringing an early taste of winter across a massive stretch of the country — from Illinois through the Midwest and southward into Texas.

According to updated EURO model projections, a strong storm system will sweep across the nation just before the holiday, triggering severe storms ahead of the cold front and a dramatic temperature drop behind it.

Forecast Models Show Widespread Arctic Air Surge

Meteorologists say confidence is increasing that a polar air mass will dive southward during the final week of November, following a strong cold front that could produce severe weather and heavy rain in its leading edge.

The latest temperature outlook shows highs dropping into the 20s and 30s across the Midwest, with overnight lows falling into the teens for some northern states. Areas of Iowa, Illinois, Missouri, and Kansas are expected to be among the first to feel the brunt of the cold blast before the frigid air expands into Oklahoma and northern Texas.

Maps from the European weather model (EURO) show purple and pink zones stretching from the Great Plains to the Midwest, with temperatures ranging 10–25°F below normal.

“This setup marks one of the most significant early-season Arctic intrusions we’ve seen so far,” forecasters noted. “If model consistency continues, the cold air could linger through the Thanksgiving weekend.”

Severe Weather Threat Before the Temperature Plunge

Before the Arctic air arrives, the system is expected to produce severe thunderstorms across multiple states, from Illinois and Arkansas down to Texas.

Forecasters warn that warm Gulf moisture ahead of the front could help fuel a line of damaging thunderstorms, gusty winds, and even isolated tornadoes.

Meteorologists are monitoring the setup closely, as it resembles patterns that have historically produced late-fall severe weather outbreaks.

• Primary areas of concern: Eastern Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and southern Illinois.
• Timing: Wednesday and Thursday, November 20–21, with the cold front fully pushing through by Thanksgiving weekend.

“Residents should be prepared for a one-two punch — strong storms first, then an immediate and sharp drop in temperatures,” meteorologists said.

How Much Colder Will It Get?

As the Arctic blast moves in behind the storm front, temperatures could plummet by 25 to 35 degrees within 24 hours in some regions.

Forecast models project:

• Chicago, IL: Highs near 28°F, with wind chills in the teens by late Thanksgiving week.
• Kansas City, MO: Lows dipping below 20°F with snow flurries possible.
• Dallas–Fort Worth, TX: Temperatures falling into the 30s, with possible frost conditions.
• San Antonio, TX: Highs only in the 40s after starting the week in the 70s.

The National Weather Service has not yet issued official watches or warnings, but long-range forecasters emphasize that travelers should monitor updates closely, especially with Thanksgiving travel season approaching.

Meteorologists Tracking Arctic Origins

Experts attribute this cold outbreak to a polar vortex disruption, sending frigid air from the Arctic Circle deep into the continental U.S.

The EURO and GFS models both show the same trend — a strong surge of cold air diving through the Dakotas, Nebraska, and Iowa, then expanding east and south.

“This kind of deep, continental Arctic air mass is typical of January, not November,” one meteorologist explained. “It’s an early signal that this winter could start more aggressively than recent years.”

Potential Impacts on Thanksgiving Travel

With the storm system timed to arrive just before Thanksgiving, millions of travelers could face flight delays, slick roads, and hazardous driving conditions.

• Air travel: Major Midwest and South-Central airports — including Chicago O’Hare, Dallas–Fort Worth, and St. Louis Lambert — may see disruptions due to storms and high winds.
• Road travel: Freezing rain and sleet may follow the front in parts of Missouri, Illinois, and northern Arkansas.
• Holiday plans: Outdoor gatherings may be affected by below-freezing wind chills through the weekend.

Travel experts are advising people to book flexible itineraries and check airline alerts frequently as the weather system develops.

Looking Ahead: Early Winter Preview

Long-range forecasters say this Arctic blast could mark the start of a colder-than-average pattern heading into December. The transition from stormy conditions to widespread cold suggests a high-energy weather phase that might repeat through early winter.

Meteorologists caution that forecast details could still shift, but the agreement between major weather models is strengthening — increasing confidence that much of the Midwest and South will see a major cold outbreak heading into Thanksgiving week.

Do you think this Thanksgiving Arctic blast could signal an early start to winter across the Midwest? Share your thoughts and stay updated with more regional weather coverage at NapervilleLocal.com.