Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm Shifts North, Expanding Heavy Snow and Ice Threat From Kentucky to Pennsylvania Through Sunday Night

UNITED STATES — A developing winter storm expected to unfold from Saturday evening through early Monday morning is showing a significant northward shift, increasing the risk of heavy snow, ice accumulation, and prolonged winter impacts across portions of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic, based on the latest model guidance issued January 21.

Forecasters emphasize that this system is not a fast-moving event, with multiple rounds of precipitation likely and impacts extending well beyond a typical 24-hour snowfall window.

Storm Track Shift Brings Higher Snow Risk Farther North

Both primary forecast models — the EURO and GFS — have shifted the storm track northward over the past 24 hours, a trend meteorologists note is climatologically consistent for late-January systems.

As a result, snowfall potential has increased across a broad zone stretching from:

• Kentucky and Tennessee
• West Virginia
• Virginia
• Maryland
• Southern and central Pennsylvania

Model projections indicate widespread snowfall totals of 6 to 13 inches, with localized amounts approaching 15 inches where colder air remains firmly in place.

Ice Intrusion Emerges as a Major Forecast Concern

While snowfall totals remain impressive, the largest uncertainty — and potential hazard — is ice contamination, especially in areas near the rain-to-snow transition zone.

Forecast data shows warm air aloft attempting to intrude into the system, which could:

• Change snow to sleet or freezing rain
• Lower snow totals in some locations
• Increase the risk of tree damage and power outages

Forecasters caution that even modest ice accumulation can cause greater disruption than heavy snow, particularly when combined with gusty winds and saturated ground conditions.

Longer-Lasting Storm Increases Overall Impact Potential

This winter storm stands out because it is consistently projected to last longer than 24 hours, with precipitation expected to continue into Sunday night and possibly early Monday.

Key factors driving the extended duration include:

• Multiple waves of precipitation
• Persistent overrunning moisture
• Reinforcing cold air behind the system

Because of this, early snowfall maps may underrepresent total impacts, as additional accumulation and icing could occur after the initial phase.

Focus Shifts From Exact Totals to Preparedness

Meteorologists stress that it is still too early for precise snow and ice totals, as model guidance remains volatile. Instead, residents in the affected regions should focus on impact-based preparation.

Recommended actions include:

• Preparing for snowfall capable of blocking driveways
• Planning for potential power outages due to ice
• Avoiding unnecessary travel from Saturday night through Sunday
• Monitoring forecast updates as temperature profiles become clearer

Even areas that see lower snow totals could still experience significant disruption due to ice and prolonged precipitation.

What to Expect Going Forward

Forecast confidence continues to increase that this system will be a high-impact winter storm, even as exact snowfall and ice amounts remain uncertain.

The next 24 to 36 hours will be critical in determining:

• The final placement of the heaviest snow band
• The extent of freezing rain
• The duration of hazardous conditions

Residents across the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic should remain alert as forecasts are refined.

For continued winter weather analysis, storm updates, and regional impact breakdowns, stay connected with NapervilleLocal.com for ongoing coverage.