Pennsylvania and the Northeast See Snow Chances Fade This Week as Models Signal a Late-January Pattern Shift

PENNSYLVANIA — Winter weather chances across the Northeast have declined sharply this week, with the latest forecast guidance showing Northern Pennsylvania as the only area with a marginal chance for light accumulating snow Thursday morning. Even there, confidence remains low, and widespread impacts are not expected. The newest European model output makes it clear that this is not a classic winter storm setup, but rather a suppressed pattern where cold air exists without enough moisture to support meaningful snowfall.

Why snow chances are dropping right now

The primary reason snowfall probabilities are falling is the lack of support from the southern jet stream, which remains largely inactive. While colder air is present across the region, moisture is limited, preventing snow from organizing into a significant event.

Current expectations indicate:

• Northern Pennsylvania has the best — but still limited — chance for light accumulation
• Most of the Northeast is likely to see little to no snow
• Any precipitation that does fall would be light, brief, and localized

This setup favors misses and glancing snow chances rather than widespread coverage.

What the European model is actually showing

The European (ECMWF) model displayed in the data is not forecasting an imminent storm, but instead highlights stronger snow signals displaced north and west of the core Northeast region. This placement suggests the atmospheric energy is not aligning properly over Pennsylvania and surrounding states.

Importantly, the model output should be viewed as pattern guidance, not a finalized snowfall forecast. It reflects where conditions could become favorable, not where snow is guaranteed.

Why Northern Pennsylvania still has a slim window

Northern Pennsylvania sits closest to the edge of the colder air mass and the northern moisture track. This positioning gives the region a narrow window where light snow could develop early Thursday morning.

However:

• Accumulation potential remains low
• Confidence is not high enough to call it likely
• Many areas may see nothing measurable at all

This is why forecasters continue to describe the setup as possible, not probable.

Late January may bring a pattern change

The most meaningful signal in the data points beyond this week. Forecast confidence is increasing that the final 10 days of January could feature a more active winter pattern, especially as La Niña influence weakens.

As La Niña fades:

• The southern jet stream may become more active
• Moisture availability could improve
• Cold air and precipitation may finally overlap

That combination is what has been missing so far this winter.

Bottom line

Snow chances this week are trending lower, with only Northern Pennsylvania retaining a limited opportunity for light accumulation. Despite the quiet short-term outlook, winter is far from over, and signs are pointing toward a potentially more favorable setup later in January. For now, expectations should remain low, with attention shifting toward how the broader pattern evolves in the days ahead.

What do you think — will late January finally bring a true winter setup, or will snow chances continue to underperform? Share your thoughts and follow the latest weather updates at NapervilleLocal.com.