Rain and Thunderstorms Expected to Return to Texas and Oklahoma Around November 16

ILLINOIS — After weeks of mostly dry and cool weather, Texas and Oklahoma may finally get the rain they need, according to forecasts shared by meteorologist Chris Nunley.

Models are showing an increasing likelihood of rain and thunderstorms returning to both states around November 16, marking what could be a welcome shift for regions struggling with ongoing drought conditions.

Promising Signs for Much-Needed Rainfall

In his latest update, Nunley said that forecast trends are looking favorable for precipitation, although it’s still too early to determine specific rainfall amounts or storm intensity.

“Texas and Oklahoma need rain,” Nunley wrote in his forecast discussion. “There’s an increasing likelihood for rain and storms to return around November 16. Too early for specifics on amounts, severity, etc., but it’s looking promising for rain.”

A weather map accompanying his post highlights a broad swath of expected rainfall stretching from central Texas to northeastern Oklahoma, covering cities like Austin, Dallas, Fort Worth, Oklahoma City, and Tulsa.

Drought Relief on the Horizon

The upcoming weather pattern could bring some relief to areas suffering from long-term dryness. Parts of Texas, including the Hill Country and the Panhandle, remain under moderate to severe drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.

Even light to moderate rainfall totals could help improve soil moisture, refill stock ponds, and reduce wildfire risks ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday.

Meteorologists say the shift is linked to an upper-level pattern change expected to funnel moist Gulf air northward, combining with a cold front that could spark scattered to widespread thunderstorms.

Potential Thunderstorms but No Major Severe Risk Yet

While computer models indicate storms are likely, forecasters caution it’s too early to predict whether they’ll turn severe. Typically, mid-November storms in the southern plains can include gusty winds, lightning, and isolated hail, though the primary impact may be beneficial rainfall.

“It’s a developing setup, and we’ll need to watch how the moisture and energy line up,” Nunley noted. “At this point, the biggest story is the return of rain itself.”

Residents are encouraged to monitor local forecasts as details become clearer in the coming days.

Timing and Areas to Watch

• Rainfall window: November 15–17
• Primary zones: Central and North Texas, Eastern Oklahoma
• Cities potentially impacted: Dallas–Fort Worth, Austin, Waco, Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Houston (possible fringe impacts)

If the system strengthens as expected, it could also push moisture eastward, bringing light rain to Arkansas, Louisiana, and parts of Missouri later in the week.

Looking Ahead

This potential storm system comes as part of a larger weather shift across the U.S., which will likely bring colder air into the Midwest and Great Plains around the same time. For much of the southern plains, however, the focus remains on desperately needed rain.

“Any drop helps at this point,” one Texas resident commented online. “We’ll take whatever we can get.”

As the pattern evolves, forecasters say additional systems could follow later in November, possibly signaling the start of a more active late-fall weather period across the southern U.S.

For continued weather coverage and Thanksgiving week forecasts, visit NapervilleLocal.com.