Thanksgiving Week Weather Could Bring Deep Freeze Across U.S. as Arctic Air Surges South

ILLINOIS — Mother Nature might be bringing more than turkey and stuffing this Thanksgiving — she’s preparing a blast of Arctic air that could leave much of the U.S. shivering during the holiday week, according to new long-range forecast models.

Meteorologists say that a trio of atmospheric pattern shifts — the Arctic Oscillation (AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) — are aligning to pull bitterly cold air down from the Arctic into the central and eastern U.S.

Cold Pattern Taking Shape Before Thanksgiving

The latest European ECMWF ensemble models show all three indices trending strongly negative heading into the third week of November. That typically spells trouble for anyone hoping for mild travel weather.

When the AO and NAO turn negative, it allows cold Arctic air to spill southward, essentially “opening the freezer door” and letting frigid air sweep down from Canada into the Midwest and Great Plains.

Meanwhile, the EPO dipping negative means a blocking ridge will form near Alaska, redirecting even more cold air toward the lower 48 states.

Put together, the combination could mean a major Thanksgiving cold outbreak, one that meteorologists have humorously dubbed “ThanksFREEZING.”

What This Means for Illinois and the Midwest

For residents in Illinois and surrounding Midwest states, the pattern setup suggests temperatures could drop well below normal during Thanksgiving week.

That means:

• Morning lows may plunge into the 20s or teens in some areas.
• Highs could struggle to reach the mid-30s across parts of northern Illinois.
• Snow flurries or light accumulation may accompany the Arctic front.

Travelers should prepare for slippery conditions and possible delays during one of the busiest travel weeks of the year.

“It’s looking like a classic early winter setup — Arctic air spilling down from Canada and sticking around longer than most would like,” said a weather analyst from the Texas Storm Chasers network. “If you’re traveling for the holiday, pack the heavy coat.”

Humorous Take From Weather Forecasters

Meteorologists online have taken a lighthearted tone about the forecast, joking that this Thanksgiving might feel more like a deep-freeze dinner party.

Among the predictions:

• You’ll be basting your turkey in long johns.
• Grandma’s “it’s just flurries” might turn into a snow globe outside.
• The only thing warm will be your attitude toward whoever brings the mac and cheese.

While humor helps lighten the forecast, experts warn the cold could be the strongest of the season so far, affecting not just comfort but travel, heating demand, and early winter readiness.

A Frozen Holiday Ahead?

The pattern, while still developing, is consistent across multiple models and has been seen in past years before major cold spells. Meteorologists say this shift could mark the start of a colder, stormier late-November and early-December period.

So, as the Thanksgiving table fills up with turkey, stuffing, and pies, residents across Illinois and the Midwest might also be serving up subfreezing temperatures and a side of snowflakes.

For continued updates on Midwest weather and Thanksgiving travel forecasts, visit NapervilleLocal.com.