Winter Forecast Shifts West as New HRRR Data Signals Narrow Early-Morning Snow Bursts Across the Southeast

SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES — A subtle but important westward shift in winter weather guidance is emerging in the latest high-resolution model data, raising the potential for brief, localized snow bursts early Sunday morning across parts of the Deep South where snow was previously considered unlikely.

Forecasters caution that this is not a widespread or high-impact event, but evolving model trends suggest some communities could see a quick surprise snowfall window, while others may see nothing at all.

HRRR Model Shows Snow Bands Trending Farther West

The latest run of the HRRR (High-Resolution Rapid Refresh) model is now placing snow bands farther west than earlier forecasts, a notable change from just hours ago when guidance barely supported snow north of southern Georgia.

With each new hourly update, snow signals have edged northwest, aligning more closely with broader winter patterns where cold air arrives late but forcefully.

This trend highlights the challenge of this setup, as:

• Several models struggled early on
• The NAM model handled the large-scale pattern more accurately
• The European model performed poorly, missing snow potential entirely in some southern areas

Why This Setup Is So Difficult to Forecast

This system features a tight timing window where cold air and moisture briefly overlap.

Here’s the meteorological breakdown:

• Rain develops shortly after midnight, cooling and moistening the atmosphere
• By around 4 a.m., colder air catches up just as moisture begins pulling out
• That overlap creates the potential for quick, narrow snow bursts

Because the window is short, placement matters greatly, and small shifts in timing can determine who sees snow and who does not.

What Impacts Are Most Likely

Not everyone will see snow from this system.

• Some areas may miss snowfall entirely
• Most locations that do see snow will receive a light dusting
• If a narrow deformation band sets up, isolated pockets could reach 1–2 inches
• Three inches is considered an absolute upper limit, and only in very localized spots

Overall, impacts are expected to remain low, with snow amounts highly variable over short distances.

Timing Window to Watch Closely

The most likely window for snow development appears to be:

• Between 7 a.m. and 10 a.m.
• In some locations, snow could linger as late as noon
• Snowfall, where it occurs, will be brief and fast-moving

This timing may allow snow to fall during the morning hours before temperatures rise or moisture exits the region.

The Bottom Line

This is a classic marginal winter setup, where model trends matter more than raw totals. While widespread snow is not expected, forecast confidence is increasing that some areas could see a quick burst of snow Sunday morning, especially where timing aligns just right.

Additional updates are expected once the next NAM run completes, which should further clarify where snow bands may or may not develop. For continued model updates, forecast refinements, and winter weather trend analysis, stay with NapervilleLocal.com and check back frequently as confidence improves.