Sunday–Monday Storm Trends Toward Mostly Rain Across Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England as Track Shifts and Temperatures Stay in the Lower 40s
NORTHEAST UNITED STATES — Updated model guidance for the upcoming Sunday–Monday storm system continues to indicate a primarily rain event, with temperatures expected to hold in the lower 40s across much of the region. The projected storm track appears less favorable for widespread snowfall, limiting winter impacts for many areas.
The ECMWF model valid for Monday morning, February 16, 2026, shows a surface low centered offshore with a pressure reading near 993 mb, drawing widespread precipitation into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England.
Rain Dominates Along the Coast
The precipitation map highlights widespread rain (green shading) across:
- Coastal and eastern New Jersey
- Long Island
- Southern Connecticut
- Rhode Island
- Southeastern Massachusetts
- Eastern Maryland and Delaware
With temperatures forecast in the lower 40s, most of these areas are expected to remain rain rather than snow.
Snow and Mixed Precipitation Confined Inland
Farther inland, a swath of snow (purple shading) is indicated across:
- Portions of central and northern Pennsylvania
- Upstate New York
- Interior New England
A narrow zone of mixed precipitation (orange/pink) appears along the transition line between rain and snow. However, the overall storm track appears less favorable for a significant coastal snow event, as warmer air dominates much of the populated corridor along the Interstate 95 corridor.
Storm Track Limits Major Snow Threat
The surface low is projected to remain offshore, keeping the warm sector positioned across much of the coastal Northeast. This setup favors rain over snow for many metropolitan areas. The discussion accompanying the graphic notes that while additional updates are expected, current trends point toward a rain-dominant event rather than a widespread winter storm.
What Comes Next
Forecasters continue to monitor the Sunday–Tuesday timeframe for any shifts in track or temperature profiles that could alter impacts. At this stage, however, the combination of lower-40s temperatures and the current storm path supports a mainly rain outcome for much of the region.
Residents across inland areas should continue monitoring updates in case colder air shifts southward, but for now, the primary expectation is rain with limited snow accumulation outside higher elevations and interior zones.
For ongoing storm-track updates and regional impact analysis, follow coverage on NapervilleLocal.com, where developing weather systems are reported clearly and responsibly.
I’ve lived in Naperville long enough to see how quickly our community changes — from new developments downtown to sudden shifts in our Midwest weather. Reporting on Naperville news and daily forecasts gives me the chance to keep neighbors informed about what really matters. My goal is simple: deliver clear, timely updates so you always know what’s happening in our city and what to expect from the skies above.