Author: Avery Hughes

ROCKFORD AND STATELINE REGION — The severe weather threat for Monday afternoon and evening continues to hold firm across the Stateline region, with just about the entire area remaining under a Level 3 out of 5 Enhanced Risk for severe weather. All modes of severe weather are in play for Monday, unfortunately including tornadoes, with…

ILLINOIS AND SURROUNDING REGION — A significant and potentially major severe weather outbreak is possible Monday, April 27, with widespread damaging winds, large to very large hail, and several tornadoes including long-tracked and particularly damaging storms expected across a large portion of Illinois and neighboring areas. The core hatched zone covering central and southern Illinois…

CAROLINAS — A round of storms is set to push through the Carolinas today with the active window running from 2 PM through 9 PM, bringing locally heavy rain, lightning, gusty winds, and some small hail to the region. The peak timing for most areas falls between 4 PM and 7 PM, with storms lingering…

MICHIGAN AND GREAT LAKES REGION — The first week of May is shaping up to be a cold one across Michigan and the broader Great Lakes region, with the Climate Prediction Center issuing a Moderate Risk of hazardous below-normal temperatures valid May 2 through May 3. Daily high temperatures could run more than 8°F below…

EASTERN UNITED STATES — Deep soil moisture levels measured from the surface down to 79 inches are running well below average across a vast stretch of the eastern United States, revealing the root cause behind why current drought conditions have become so severe. The deficit is so significant that even well established plants with deep…

EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS — Significant severe weather is expected today with the worst of the threat centered just west of Arkansas in eastern Oklahoma, where extremely large hail reaching baseball size or bigger, damaging winds, and tornadoes are all likely. Depending on where storms initiate and track this afternoon, the threat could push…

CENTRAL KANSAS — The active severe weather pattern continues into April 25, 2026, with the threat shifting north and focusing on central Kansas, where intense supercells capable of producing strong tornadoes and very large hail are expected. The core of the most significant risk carries a Level 3 designation at 10% tornado probability, with tornado…

CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA — The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Moderate Risk designation for central and eastern Oklahoma today, driven by an extreme gorilla hail threat and the potential for EF2 or stronger tornadoes across the region. This marks the highest hail risk issued by the SPC since the agency rolled out its…

GULF AND CARIBBEAN REGION — With a strong El Niño pattern expected to dominate this summer, historical comparisons drawn from the five strongest El Niño years versus the five strongest La Niña years reveal a dramatic difference in Atlantic hurricane activity, pointing toward a relatively quieter season ahead for the Gulf Coast, Caribbean, and Florida….

SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SURROUNDING REGION — A deeply concerning atmospheric signal is emerging ahead of Monday’s severe weather event, as CWASP numbers are forecast to reach 80-85 across southern Illinois and neighboring areas. This is a significant and alarming threshold given that 75% of all EF2-EF5 tornadoes on record have occurred when CWASP values exceed…