Caribbean Tropical Moisture Fueling Heavy Rain Hazard Outlook Across the Entire South and Southeast With Widespread Heavy Rain Risk Valid May 27 Through May 31

SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES — Caribbean tropical moisture is forecast to flow northward into the South and Southeast through the coming week, with NOAA’s 168-hour QPF valid from Monday May 25 through Monday June 1, 2026, showing widespread purple and red rainfall signatures indicating 3 to 5 or more inches across a massive corridor from Texas through the Carolinas and Florida.

The NOAA Day 3 through 7 Hazards Outlook valid May 27 through May 31 has issued a Heavy Rain designation covering the entire South and Southeast, with Florida receiving an additional Heavy Rain designation beginning May 28 through May 31.

NOAA 168-Hour QPF Shows 3 to 5 Plus Inches Across the South and Southeast This Week

The 7-day QPF map issued at 1026Z Monday May 25 shows the most intense rainfall signatures concentrated across the Gulf Coast states, Deep South, and Florida, where deep red and purple values indicate widespread totals of 3 to 5 inches or greater through the Monday to Monday period. Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and the Carolinas all fall within the heaviest rainfall footprint on the weekly accumulation map.

While the 7-day totals paint a significant picture across a broad area, forecasters note that the exact placement of the heaviest amounts will be highly localized and spotty in nature. The where, when, and how much of individual location totals remains uncertain, meaning some communities will see far above average weekly totals while others nearby may receive considerably less.

NOAA Heavy Rain Hazard Outlook Active From May 27 Through May 31 Across the Entire South

The NOAA Day 3 through 7 U.S. Hazards Outlook shows a Heavy Rain designation covering a massive geographic footprint across the entire southern tier of the country from Texas and the southern Plains eastward through the Deep South and into the Carolinas, valid from May 27 through May 31. This is one of the largest Heavy Rain hazard zones depicted on the outlook map, encompassing virtually every southern state within the risk corridor.

Florida carries an additional and separate Heavy Rain designation beginning May 28 and continuing through May 31, reflecting the state’s elevated risk for significant rainfall accumulation as tropical moisture flows northward from the Caribbean through the period. The dual Heavy Rain designations covering both the broader South and Florida specifically underscore the widespread and serious nature of the upcoming wet pattern.

Tropical Moisture Flow From the Caribbean Keeping Rain Chances Elevated All Week

Caribbean tropical moisture flowing northward will serve as the primary fuel source keeping rain chances elevated and rainfall totals significant across the South and Southeast through the coming week. This persistent tropical moisture feed combined with the active weather pattern already in place creates a compounding flood risk for communities that have already received significant rainfall over the past several days.

Residents across the entire southern and southeastern United States should begin preparing for an extended period of heavy rainfall through the end of May. Monitoring local flood watches and warnings, staying aware of drainage conditions in flood-prone areas, and avoiding unnecessary travel during heavy rain events will be critical safety steps through the May 27 to 31 hazard period. Stay with NapervilleLocal.com for the latest weather updates and local forecast coverage.