November Tornado Risk Map Warns of Elevated Threat Across Southern U.S. and Midwest

CHICAGO, Ill. — November is shaping up to be an active month for severe weather, with meteorologists warning that shifting seasonal patterns could bring an elevated tornado threat across parts of the South, Midwest, and lower Mississippi Valley.

Storm chaser Adam Lucio shared an updated tornado risk outlook for November, illustrating potential danger zones where cold northern air meets lingering Gulf moisture — a volatile combination known to produce destructive late-season tornadoes.

According to Lucio’s analysis, states including Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, and parts of Illinois and Missouri face a heightened risk this month. His map categorizes regions under “Possible” and “Greater” risk zones, based on climatology data from The Weather Channel’s 30-year records.

“November is no stranger to significant tornado events,” Lucio explained. “The jet stream becomes more energized as it settles southward for winter, creating a setup that can produce outbreaks spanning multiple states and dozens of tornadoes in a single day.”

Southern States See Greater Threat

The “Greater” risk zone includes areas near Dallas, New Orleans, and central Mississippi, where historical tornado frequency spikes during late fall. Lucio notes that while deep Gulf moisture becomes harder to pull north as cold air dominates, southern systems remain capable of spawning severe storms and long-track tornadoes.

Weather systems in November also tend to move faster and dig deeper, sometimes producing “bomb cyclone” dynamics — powerful, fast-developing low-pressure systems that can drive widespread wind and thunderstorm damage.

Midwest Not Out of Danger

While the Deep South typically bears the brunt of November tornadoes, parts of the Midwest — including southern Illinois, Missouri, and western Kentucky — remain vulnerable.

The map labels much of this region as “Possible,” reflecting a historical tendency for secondary tornado seasons during late autumn. Cities such as St. Louis and Memphis have both experienced destructive tornado events in past Novembers.

“Even though the cold air starts to dominate northward, the right storm setup can still trigger violent tornadoes in the Midwest,” Lucio said.

Why November Tornadoes Are So Dangerous

Meteorologists say fall tornadoes can be particularly hazardous because of shorter daylight hours and increased population density in affected regions.

These late-season storms also tend to occur after sunset, reducing visibility and warning time. Coupled with fast-moving weather systems, this makes overnight tornadoes especially deadly.

In Illinois, for instance, the 2013 Washington tornado outbreak — which struck in mid-November — remains one of the most devastating in recent history, killing eight people and damaging more than 1,000 homes.

Staying Prepared

The National Weather Service advises residents in at-risk states to review their severe weather plans, check NOAA weather radios, and stay alert for changing forecasts.

Lucio also emphasized the need for awareness beyond traditional “tornado alley.”

“People think tornado season ends after spring, but that’s not true,” he said. “November is one of those months that can surprise people — especially when warm Gulf air lingers longer than expected.”

With much of the central U.S. under at least some level of tornado potential this month, residents are urged to remain vigilant, particularly during major cold fronts and storm system passages.

Do you live in a region marked as ‘Possible’ or ‘Greater’ risk on the November tornado map? How prepared is your household for severe weather? Share your thoughts and local safety tips at NapervilleLocal.com.