Hail Threat Builds From Wichita and Tulsa to Kansas City and Central Missouri Tonight, With 1.5-Inch Stones Possible Into Early Morning
KANSAS — A developing round of elevated thunderstorms is expected to form tonight across southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma, with the potential to spread into central Missouri overnight and into early Wednesday morning.
Forecasters indicate that as warm air advection increases ahead of a broader severe weather stretch, storms will develop in a moistening airmass. While these storms are expected to remain elevated — meaning surface-based tornado risk is limited — they could still produce pockets of hail.
Timing: 7 PM Through 7 AM
The window for stronger storms appears to run from approximately 7 p.m. through 7 a.m., covering much of the overnight period into early morning hours.
The core risk zone includes:
- Wichita and Topeka, Kansas
- Tulsa, Oklahoma
- Kansas City, Missouri
- Extending east into parts of central Missouri
Storms forming this evening may gradually shift east-northeast overnight.
Hail Potential Up to 1.5 Inches
Given the elevated nature of the storms, hail is the primary concern. Forecast guidance suggests hail up to 1.5 inches in diameter could occur in isolated stronger cells.
That size hail can dent vehicles, damage roofs and break windows, even if storms are not particularly widespread.
The phrase “pocket change size hail” has been used to describe the likely scenario, but the upper-end potential could approach severe criteria in some spots.
Central Missouri Also in Play
As storms mature and move east, parts of central Missouri may see activity into the overnight and early morning hours.
Cities such as Kansas City sit near the northern edge of the more favorable hail zone, while areas farther south toward Tulsa and southern Kansas may experience the strongest updrafts.
What This Means Going Forward
This round of elevated storms appears to be the opening act of a busier stretch of weather later this week across the Plains and Midwest.
While tonight’s activity is not expected to be a widespread severe outbreak, residents in Kansas, Oklahoma and Missouri should remain weather-aware overnight, especially where stronger cells develop.
For readers tracking national severe weather patterns and potential Midwest impacts later this week, continue following updates on NapervilleLocal.com as forecasts evolve.
Author: Avery Hughes
Category: Naperville News & Weather Reporter
I’ve lived in Naperville long enough to see how quickly our community changes — from new developments downtown to sudden shifts in our Midwest weather. Reporting on Naperville news and daily forecasts gives me the chance to keep neighbors informed about what really matters. My goal is simple: deliver clear, timely updates so you always know what’s happening in our city and what to expect from the skies above.